Resumo
Os economistas do mainstream têm procurado, ao longo do tempo, explicar e justificar a existência do desemprego. Este artigo tem o objetivo de esclarecer as principais proposições teóricas apresentadas pela corrente dominante, começando pelo debate entre Pigou e Keynes sobre a possibilidade do desemprego involuntário. Em seguida, a discussão é direcionada para a relação entre o desemprego e a inflação, e para a reformulação da ideia de uma taxa natural de desemprego. A análise passa a destacar, então, a importância da taxa de desemprego para a definição da política macroeconômica, explicitando o dilema entre a garantia da estabilidade monetária e a promoção do pleno emprego.
Referências
Artus, P. (2017, Décembre 7). On ne sait plus analyser la situation à long terme des économies. Flash Economie, (17/1457). Natixis. http://pinguet.free.fr/flas171457.pdf
Artus, P. (2018, Janvier 8). La courbe de Phillips est à l’envers. Flash Economie, (18/26), Natixis. http://pinguet.free.fr/flas1826.pdf
Artus, P. (2018, Avril 10). Ne pas oublier que l’inflation apparaît quand la profitabilité des entreprises est inférieure au niveau souhaité. Flash Economie, (18/377). Natixis. http://pinguet.free.fr/flas18377.pdf
Artus, P. (2018, Mai 24). Va-t-il falloir changer complètement la théorie qui sous-tend la politique monétaire de la zone euro? Flash Economie, (18/578). Natixis. http://pinguet.free.fr/flas18574.pdf
Berson, C. et al. (2018). La courbe de Phillips existe-t-elle encore? [Rue de la Banque, No. 56]. Banque de France. http://pinguet.free.fr/phillipsbdf18.pdf
Beveridge, W. (1909). Unemployment: A problem of industry. Green & Co.
Beveridge, W. (1942). Social insurance and allied services. His Majesty’s Srationery Office.
Beveridge, W. (1944). Full employment in a free society. George Allen & Unwin.
Blanchard, O. (2016). The Phillips Curve: Back to the ’60s? American Economic Review, 106(5), 31–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.p20161003
Blaug, M. (1980). The methodology of economics. Cambridge University Press.
Bremer, W. W. (1975). Along the “American Way”: the New Deal’s work relief programs for the unemployed. The Journal of American History, 62(3), 636–652. https://doi.org/10.2307/2936218
Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., Kumar, S., & Pedemonte, M. (2018). Inflation expectations: a policy tool? In Proceedings of the ECB Forum on Central Banking: Price and wage-setting in advanced economies (Session 1). European Central Bank, Sintra, Portugal, 18-20 June. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/conferences/shared/pdf/20180618_ecb_forum_on_central_banking/Gorodnichenko_Yuriy_Paper.pdf
Cordemans, N., & Wauters, J. (2018). Inflation et activité économique sont-elles mal synchronisées dans la zone euro? [Revue économique, Juin 2018, pp. 83–99], Banque Nationale de Belgique.
https://www.nbb.be/doc/ts/publications/economicreview/2018/revecoi2018.pdf
Davies, G. (2017, October 22). The (non) disappearing Phillips Curve: Why it matters. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/e1d27c20-b34d-339e-a15f-21f1b3d87857
European Central Bank (ECB) (2018, June 18-20). ECB Forum on Central Banking: Price and wage-setting in advanced economies. [Programme, actes et vidéos], Sintra, Portugal. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/conferences/html/20180618_ecb_forum_on_central_banking.en.html
Friedman, M. (1968). The role of monetary policy. The American Economic Review, 58(1), 1–17.
Friedman, M. (1977). Nobel Lecture: Inflation and unemployment. Journal of Political Economy, 85(3), 451–472. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1830192
Galbraith, J. K. (1997). Time to ditch the NAIRU. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11(1), 93–108. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.11.1.93
Gayon, V. (2017). Le keynésianisme international se débat: Sens de l’acceptable et tournant néolibéral à l’OCDE. Annales: Histoire, Sciences Sociales, 72(1), 121–164. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0395264917000075
Hobson, J. (1899). Problems of poverty: An inquiry into the industrial condition of the poor. Methuen & Co.
Hopkins, H. L. (1936, March 14). Untitled address. United Neighborhood Houses Papers, The Social Welfare History Archives, University of Minnesota.
Husson, M. (2018a). Des lois anglaises sur les pauvres à la dénonciation moderne de l’assistanat (II). [A l’encontre, 7 avril]. http://alencontre.org/societe/des-lois-anglaises-sur-les-pauvres-a-la-denonciation-moderne-de-lassistanat-ii.html
Husson, M. (2018b). Phillips (l’inventeur de la courbe): Une trajectoire hors du commun. [Note Hussonet, No. 121, 3 juillet]. http://hussonet.free.fr/phillips718.pdf
International Monetary Fund (IMF) (2017, October). World Economic Outlook. Seeking sustainable growth: Short-term recovery, long-term challenges. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2017/09/19/world-economic-outlook-october-2017
Keynes, J. M. (1942). Théorie générale de l’emploi, de l’intérêt et de la monnaie. [Traduction de Jean de Largentaye]. Payot. (oeuvre originale publiée en 1936)
Keynes, J. M., & Henderson, J. H. (1929). Can Lloyd George do it? An examination of the liberal pledge. The Nation and Athenaeum. https://www.hetwebsite.net/het/texts/keynes/keyneshenderson1929lloydgeorge.pdf
Layard, R., Nickell, S., & Jackman, R. (1991). Unemployment: Macroeconomic performance and the labour market. Oxford University Press.
Lipsey, R. G. (1960). The relation between unemployment and the rate of change of money wage rates in the United Kingdom, 1862-1957: A further analysis. Economica, 27(105), 1–31. https://doi.org/10.2307/2551424
Lucas, R. (1978). Unemployment Policy. The American Economic Review, 68(2), 353–357. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1816720
Lucas, R. (1979). OECD’s McCracken report: A review. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 11(1), 161–168.
Marshall, A. (1925). Letter to Percy Alden. In A. C. Pigou (Ed.), Memorials of Alfred Marshall (pp. 446-447). MacMillan and Co.
Marx, K. (1977). Le capital: Critique de l’économie politique. Livre I. Éditions sociales. (oeuvre originale publiée en 1867)
McCracken, P. (Ed.) (1977). Towards full employment and price stability: A report to the OECD by a group of independent experts. OECD Publishing.
McLeay, M., & Tenreyro, S. (2019). Optimal inflation and the identification of the Phillips curve. [NBER Working Paper Series, No. 25892], National Bureau of Economic Research, USA. https://doi.org/10.3386/w25892
Modigliani, F., & Papademos, L. (1975). Targets for Monetary Policy in the Coming Year. [Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, No.1]. https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles/targets-for-monetary-policy-in-the-coming-year/
Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Économiques (OCDE) (2018, Juillet 4). L’embellie constatée sur le front de l’emploi est éclipsée par une stagnation sans précédent des salaires. https://www.oecd.org/fr/presse/l-embellie-constatee-sur-le-front-de-l-emploi-est-eclipsee-par-une-stagnation-sans-precedent-des-salaires.htm
Phillips, A. W. H. (1958). The relation between unemployment and the rate of change of Money wage rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957. Economica, 25(100), 283–299. https://doi.org/10.2307/2550759
Pigou, A. C. (1913). Unemployment. Williams & Norgate.
Rubin, G. (2012). Robert Solow de la courbe de Phillips à la question des fondements de la macroéconomie: 1960-1981. XIVe Colloque de l’ Association Charles Gide. HAL Archives Ouvertes. https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00852269/document
Samuelson, P., & Solow, R. (1960). Analytical aspects of anti-inflation policy. The American Economic Review, 50(2), 177–194. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1815021
Sargent, T., Williams, N., & Zha, T. (2006). Shocks and government beliefs: The rise and fall of american inflation. The American Economic Review, 96(4), 1193–1224. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.96.4.1193
Solow, R. (1978). Summary and evaluation. In After the Phillips curve: Persistence of high inflation and high unemployment (pp. 203–209). The Boston Federal Reserve Bank.
Solow, R. (1979). What we know and don’t know about inflation. Technology Review, 81(3), 30–44.
Tcherneva, P. R. (2012). Permanent on-the-spot job creation: The missing Keynes plan for full employment and economic transformation. Review of Social Economy, 70(1), 57–80. https://doi.org/10.1080/00346764.2011.577348
The Economist (2018, May 31). If wages are to rise, workers need more bargaining power. https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2018/05/31/if-wages-are-to-rise-workers-need-more-bargaining-power
Tobin, J. (1972). Inflation and unemployment. The American Economic Review, 62(1/2), 1–18. http://pombo.free.fr/tobin1972.pdf
Wyplosz, C. (2018, Juin 19). Presentation. In Proceedings of the ECB Forum on Central Banking: Price and wage-setting in advanced economies (Panel: Macroeconomics of price and wage-setting). European Central Bank, Sintra, Portugal, 18-20 June. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/conferences/shared/pdf/20180618_ecb_forum_on_central_banking/Wyplosz_Charles_Presentation.pdf
Este trabalho está licenciado sob uma licença Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Copyright (c) 2021 Michel Husson